Ken Ashby's AccuRatings
NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings
Winner of Todd Beck's "Best Predictive System" award, 2004 Selected as component of Ray Waits' "Superlist," 2005-2008 Season Champion (of 295) in RSFC College Football Pool, 2007 Beck's "Most Accurate Predictor" (independent system), 2011 Ranked # 1 by John Wobus Combo-6 in Week-Zero, 2013 & 2014 Beck's "Smallest Deviation from Game Scores," 2nd-Half 2014 Ranked # 1 by John Wobus Correlations in Week-Zero, 2015 Beck's "Most Straight Up Winners" (579-201, 74.2%), 2017 Record of 103-37 (99.8%ile) in ESPN College Pick 'Em, 2017 Record of 101-38 (99.9%ile) in ESPN College Pick 'Em, 2018 Ranked 4th (of 180) in RSFC College Football Pool, 2018 Record of 114-36 (99.8%ile) in ESPN College Pick 'Em, 2019
***** Ken Ashby's NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings through Monday, January 13, 2020 (Final 2019) NCAA Football Home Advantage = 3 points To predict point spread, subtract PS ratings after adding 3 points to home team. To predict over/under, add OU ratings. Rnk Prv Team Conf W-L Pct Sch Off Def PS-OU 1 2 LSU SECw 15-0 .994 1 2 4 81-34 2 1 Ohio St BTe 13-1 .989 5 1 3 83-34 3 3 Clemson ACCa 14-1 .974 33 5 1 81-27 4 5 Georgia SECe 12-2 .964 9 10 2 75-22 5 7 Alabama SECw 11-2 .957 38 3 7 79-34 6 8 Oregon PACn 12-2 .948 29 8 15 70-28 7 4 Oklahoma B12 12-2 .947 16 4 32 70-39 8 6 Florida SECe 11-2 .947 21 11 10 70-26 9 12 Penn St BTe 11-2 .944 26 9 11 71-26 10 14 Notre Dame Xind 11-2 .932 44 13 13 69-26 11 9 Wisconsin BTw 10-4 .925 6 12 8 71-25 12 10 Auburn SECw 9-4 .916 2 16 9 70-25 13 13 Michigan BTe 9-4 .911 4 14 12 69-26 14 17 Minnesota BTw 11-2 .909 46 21 25 63-29 15 11 Utah PACs 11-3 .905 48 22 6 68-22 16 18 Iowa BTw 10-3 .900 24 36 5 66-19 17 15 Baylor B12 11-3 .893 37 23 19 63-27 18 16 Memphis AAw 12-2 .882 65 7 54 62-36 19 22 Navy AAw 11-2 .850 74 32 43 57-29 20 21 Appalachian St SunB 13-1 .846 109 25 30 60-28 21 23 Cincinnati AAe 11-3 .839 60 48 17 60-22 22 25 Air Force MWm 11-2 .837 79 33 31 59-27 23 29 Texas B12 8-5 .827 8 15 28 64-31 24 19 Boise St MWm 12-2 .822 82 28 34 59-28 25 20 Southern Cal PACs 8-5 .809 7 19 41 61-32 26 31 Washington PACn 8-5 .798 45 27 14 65-23 27 32 Texas A&M SECw 8-5 .790 15 24 20 63-27 28 30 Central Florida AAe 10-3 .783 87 6 45 63-36 29 26 Oklahoma St B12 8-5 .771 27 20 44 60-32 30 24 SMU AAw 10-3 .770 71 17 88 54-39 31 34 Florida Atl USAe 11-3 .762 88 30 50 56-30 32 27 Iowa St B12 7-6 .743 11 26 23 61-27 33 28 Kansas St B12 8-5 .730 49 50 22 58-23 34 33 Virginia ACCc 9-5 .728 53 37 42 57-28 35 38 Tennessee SECe 8-5 .720 42 61 29 56-23 36 39 Arizona St PACs 8-5 .710 51 53 39 55-25 37 36 La-Lafayette SunB 11-3 .706 106 35 55 55-30 38 40 California PACn 8-5 .705 34 83 24 54-19 39 42 Michigan St BTe 7-6 .688 18 70 16 57-19 40 44 Louisville ACCa 8-5 .683 43 29 93 50-37 41 35 Indiana BTe 8-5 .679 61 34 47 56-29 42 45 San Diego St MWw 10-3 .668 113 113 18 51-14 43 48 Kentucky SECe 8-5 .664 62 64 21 57-21 44 47 North Carolina ACCc 7-6 .659 52 31 46 57-30 45 37 Virginia Tech ACCc 8-5 .644 67 38 49 55-29 46 46 Pittsburgh ACCc 8-5 .633 55 84 35 52-21 47 41 Wake Forest ACCa 8-5 .630 63 39 73 52-32 48 43 Mississippi St SECw 6-7 .600 13 45 36 57-26 49 52 Western Ky USAe 9-4 .594 98 101 48 48-21 50 49 TCU B12 5-7 .577 23 42 26 58-25 51 55 Hawaii MWw 10-5 .570 76 44 99 47-35 52 56 Missouri SECe 6-6 .545 59 47 33 57-25 53 72 Louisiana Tech USAw 10-3 .532 129 75 69 48-27 54 66 Tulane AAw 7-6 .531 70 57 58 52-28 55 53 Washington St PACn 6-7 .529 56 18 64 57-35 56 65 Wyoming MWm 8-5 .524 100 105 37 49-19 57 50 Temple AAe 8-5 .523 77 82 60 48-25 58 51 Florida St ACCa 6-7 .517 50 59 51 53-27 59 62 South Carolina SECe 4-8 .511 3 60 38 55-25 60 63 Nebraska BTw 5-7 .503 36 41 59 53-30 61 59 Colorado PACs 5-7 .502 12 79 67 48-27 62 60 Oregon St PACn 5-7 .500 32 43 94 48-35 63 54 Boston College ACCa 6-7 .493 57 56 72 50-30 64 64 West Virginia B12 5-7 .485 17 67 62 50-27 65 58 Brigham Young Xind 7-6 .473 73 72 52 51-25 66 69 Duke ACCc 5-7 .472 47 63 57 51-27 67 71 Mississippi SECw 4-8 .466 20 46 56 53-29 68 67 Marshall USAe 8-5 .460 92 97 63 47-24 69 57 Miami-Florida ACCc 6-7 .446 69 77 27 54-21 70 61 Utah St MWm 7-6 .443 75 55 82 48-32 71 77 Buffalo MACe 8-5 .441 122 71 66 48-27 72 70 Illinois BTw 6-7 .431 64 69 79 47-29 73 75 UCLA PACs 4-8 .420 14 51 78 49-32 74 73 Miami-Ohio MACe 8-6 .419 78 106 80 43-25 75 68 Ga Southern SunB 7-6 .417 81 85 75 46-26 76 82 Arkansas St SunB 8-5 .409 108 66 104 44-33 77 76 Stanford PACn 4-8 .407 10 76 53 50-25 78 74 Southern Miss USAw 7-6 .391 93 89 70 46-26 79 81 Purdue BTw 4-8 .390 25 54 68 51-30 80 91 Kent St MACe 7-6 .385 84 91 106 41-30 81 80 Texas Tech B12 4-8 .382 54 40 71 52-32 82 78 UA-Birmingham USAw 9-5 .377 125 109 65 44-23 83 85 Syracuse ACCa 5-7 .355 66 58 77 49-31 84 87 Tulsa AAw 4-8 .351 41 81 81 45-28 85 79 Central Mich MACw 8-6 .345 116 99 96 41-28 86 83 Western Mich MACw 7-6 .336 115 65 91 46-32 87 88 Houston AAw 4-8 .335 58 49 89 48-33 88 90 Arizona PACs 4-8 .331 35 62 90 47-32 89 93 Ohio U MACe 7-6 .321 121 52 84 48-33 90 84 Georgia St SunB 7-6 .311 103 90 118 38-33 91 89 Nevada MWw 7-6 .307 99 115 102 38-27 92 97 Liberty Xind 8-5 .306 130 94 108 40-30 93 86 Charlotte USAe 7-6 .300 110 107 107 39-29 94 92 Maryland BTe 3-9 .280 31 68 87 46-31 95 96 Northwestern BTw 3-9 .266 39 108 40 48-19 96 94 Kansas B12 3-9 .262 28 92 98 42-29 97 95 La-Monroe SunB 5-7 .261 89 73 122 39-36 98 98 Ball St MACw 5-7 .254 105 78 109 42-32 99 101 San Jose St MWw 5-7 .239 96 96 113 39-32 100 99 Eastern Mich MACw 6-7 .235 112 100 100 40-29 101 100 Georgia Tech ACCc 3-9 .231 30 104 92 41-27 102 102 South Florida AAe 4-8 .230 68 111 83 41-25 103 104 N Carolina St ACCa 4-8 .214 72 95 76 44-26 104 105 Fresno St MWw 4-8 .209 90 80 74 47-27 105 109 Arkansas SECw 2-10 .202 19 87 103 42-30 106 106 Middle Tenn USAe 4-8 .201 85 93 95 42-29 107 110 Vanderbilt SECe 3-9 .201 40 114 85 41-25 108 108 Toledo MACw 6-6 .199 118 86 117 39-33 109 103 Florida Int USAe 6-7 .199 123 103 97 41-28 110 107 Troy SunB 5-7 .192 119 74 110 42-33 111 111 Northern Ill MACw 5-7 .185 104 117 86 39-24 112 112 Army Xind 5-8 .182 117 102 61 46-23 113 113 Colorado St MWm 4-8 .160 97 98 111 39-31 114 114 CoastalCarolina SunB 5-7 .154 126 110 112 37-29 115 115 Rutgers BTe 2-10 .143 22 120 101 34-23 116 116 East Carolina AAe 4-8 .119 111 112 121 34-31 117 117 UN-Las Vegas MWw 4-8 .118 101 116 123 34-31 118 118 North Texas USAw 4-8 .111 120 88 114 39-32 119 119 Rice USAw 3-9 .100 86 122 105 33-22 120 120 UT-San Antonio USAw 4-8 .089 114 123 119 29-26 121 121 Texas St SunB 3-9 .074 95 128 116 30-23 122 122 Bowling Green MACe 3-9 .058 107 127 126 25-29 123 123 South Alabama SunB 2-10 .053 94 124 115 30-24 124 125 New Mexico MWm 2-10 .052 83 118 124 31-30 125 124 Connecticut AAe 2-10 .051 80 121 129 25-31 126 126 New Mexico St Xind 2-10 .049 91 119 127 28-32 127 127 Old Dominion USAe 1-11 .024 102 126 120 29-25 128 128 UT-El Paso USAw 1-11 .008 128 129 128 21-27 129 129 Massachusetts Xind 1-11 .006 127 125 130 14-40 130 130 Akron MACe 0-12 .004 124 130 125 18-21 *****