Ken Ashby's AccuRatings
National Football League (NFL) AccuRatings
Winner of Todd Beck's "Best Predictive System" award in 2008 Best StraightUp Win (tied) in Beck's PT for Second Half 2009 145-111 vs Spread (99.9%ile) in ESPN Pigskin Pick'em in 2013 138-118 vs Spread (97.4%ile) in ESPN Pigskin Pick'em in 2014 165-90 StraightUp (99.6%ile) in ESPN Pigskin Pick'em in 2015 74-51-10 (59.2%) vs Spread in Beck's PT for Second Half 2015 162-92 Confidence (94.1%ile) in ESPN Pigskin Pick'em in 2016 165-91 Confidence (97.2%ile) in ESPN Pigskin Pick'em in 2017 167-87 Confidence (99.0%ile) in ESPN Pigskin Pick'em in 2018 140-116 vs Spread (98.5%ile) in ESPN Pigskin Pick'em in 2018 163-92 Confidence (95.4%ile) in ESPN Pigskin Pick'em in 2019 138-118 vs Spread (95.1%ile) in ESPN Pigskin Pick'em in 2019 135-121 vs Spread (96.2%ile) in ESPN Pigskin Pick'em in 2020 121-151 vs Spread (did not handicap COVID suspensions) in 2021 Best MSE in Beck's Totals (OU) of 23 non-Vegas systems in 2022 Best vs Spread (54.7%) in Beck's Totals for Second Half 2023 74-41 (64.3%) vs Spread in Beck's Totals for First Half 2025 Best Mean Square Error in Beck's Totals for First Half 2025
***** Ken Ashby's NFL AccuRatings through Monday, January 12, 2025 (Round 1) NFL Home Advantage = 2 points To predict point spread, subtract PS ratings after adding 2 points to home team. To predict over/under, add OU ratings. Rnk Prv Team Div W-L Pct Sch Off Def PS-OU 1 1 Seattle Nw 14-3 .807 10 4 2 61-22 2 2 LA Rams Nw 13-5 .761 4 1 8 59-27 3 4 Houston As 13-5 .740 3 13 1 57-18 4 5 Denver Aw 14-3 .719 31 14 3 55-20 5 3 Jacksonville As 13-5 .717 13 8 10 56-24 6 7 San Francisco Nw 13-5 .711 5 7 11 55-25 7 6 New England Ae 15-3 .708 32 10 7 56-23 8 8 Buffalo Ae 13-5 .668 30 3 16 56-28 9 10 Chicago Nn 12-6 .622 25 12 23 50-26 10 9 Philadelphia Ne 11-7 .607 15 17 5 53-19 11 11 LA Chargers Aw 11-7 .580 21 22 9 51-19 12 13 Detroit Nn 9-8 .552 14 2 19 55-29 13 12 Pittsburgh An 10-8 .546 9 21 15 49-21 14 14 Green Bay Nn 9-8-1 .529 24 15 12 52-22 15 15 Minnesota Nn 9-8 .524 16 24 4 52-17 16 16 Indianapolis As 8-9 .523 6 5 21 54-29 17 17 Baltimore An 8-9 .498 20 9 14 53-26 18 18 Tampa Bay Ns 8-9 .474 11 16 20 49-24 19 19 Atlanta Ns 8-9 .461 23 25 22 46-22 20 20 Carolina Ns 8-10 .437 8 27 18 45-20 21 21 Kansas City Aw 6-11 .411 18 19 6 52-19 22 22 Dallas Ne 7-9-1 .400 29 6 32 47-33 23 23 Miami Ae 7-10 .372 28 26 24 45-22 24 24 Cincinnati An 6-11 .362 19 11 31 46-31 25 25 New Orleans Ns 6-11 .340 26 29 17 45-18 26 26 Washington Ne 5-12 .326 17 18 27 46-26 27 27 Cleveland An 5-12 .294 27 31 13 44-16 28 28 NY Giants Ne 4-13 .294 12 20 25 47-24 29 29 Arizona Nw 3-14 .290 2 23 28 45-25 30 30 Tennessee As 3-14 .254 1 28 29 41-22 31 31 Las Vegas Aw 3-14 .227 7 32 26 40-19 32 32 NY Jets Ae 3-14 .198 22 30 30 40-23 ****